CoreMacro
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
At major technical crossroads, markets eitherpull back before staging a sustainable breakout, or attempt to break out only to drop considerably (i.e., a fakeout). We believe the latter dynamics are more likely to play out.
2026 has closer parallels with 2021 than with 2000 because an ultra-accommodative Fed can prolong the stock market rally even as a tech capex boom ends. Plus, a new tactical trade is short silver versus gold.
We explain the underlying catalysts for the RMB’s seasonal appreciation, and assess the upside potential for the currency in 2026.
There will be little market and macro implications from the US intervention in Venezuela. Fade away any near-term moves in global oil markets. However, Colombian and Peruvian assets will benefit from lower political risk premiums. We are upgrading Colombian equities and fixed income to overweight versus EM.
We have been surprised that consumption has held up well despite anemic payrolls growth. This brief considers ways that consumption might continue to beat our base-case expectations.
MacroQuant has downgraded equities to underweight, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is still bullish on gold.
Lots of data out today, most of which point to a global economy that is cooling but not (yet) freezing.
Following this weekend's election, we reiterate an overweight stance across Chilean risk assets relative to EM benchmarks and advise buying local currency government bonds (currency unhedged).
