CoreMacro
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
In this week’s note, we share the main implications for European investors from what was discussed at the BCA Conference in New York and provide a short list of the questions most frequently asked by investors we met recently in Lisbon, Madrid, and Barcelona.
Precious metals, corporate credit, and tech stocks are all showing signs of late-cycle euphoria. We identify various trigger points that investors should monitor to turn more bearish.
The most significant divide in the stock market and the economy is the gap between companies positioned to benefit from the AI boom and companies without a link to it. The former are surging while many of the latter are struggling.
In global markets, speculative forces have intertwined with the sound fundamentals of specific equity segments, perplexing investors. This report aims to distinguish between excessive price run-ups and healthy fundamentals.
The Fed is undergoing a regime-change in which the primacy of price stability is displaced by the primacy of ultra-low real rates. This will structurally underpin real assets such as gold, cryptocurrencies, and stocks.
The belief that net portfolio outflows out of the US will fuel EM assets is a common but misguided narrative. If the US starts experiencing net capital outflows, it would need to run a current account surplus. A shift in the US current account from deficit to surplus would be devastating for the global economy in general and EM in particular.