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One macro framework for rates, FX, credit, and commodities, helping investors connect cross-market signals and position with clarity and conviction.
The CNY is undervalued and highly competitive. This gives China room to let the currency appreciate while remaining an export-driven powerhouse, gradually shifting from export intensity toward stronger domestic consumption. This achieves two objectives. First, it narrows the capital account deficit and strengthens the CNY’s role as a global anchor. Second, it enhances Beijing’s geopolitical autonomy by reducing reliance on foreign final demand.
The labor market tightened in January, significantly lowering the odds of a H1 2026 rate cut. Rate cuts driven by lower inflation are still likely in H2 2026.
This report flags near-term risks for gold. Yet we remain optimistic about the prospects for its long-term bull market.
What’s driving government bond yields, and how do different bond markets impact each other? In today's Strategy Insight, we decompose yield moves into global drivers and idiosyncratic local drivers.
The ECB is about to make its first policy mistake in the current cycle by being complacent about the downside risks to inflation. The confluence of base effects, a stronger euro, food and energy deflation, and rapid services disinflation will push headline inflation closer to 1% in the first half of the year. This significant undershoot will force the ECB to deliver reflationary cuts. Go long the September 2026 3-month Euribor futures and tactically reduce exposure to inflation-linked bonds in the Eurozone.
This week’s central bank meetings are a good reminder that monetary policy can still surprise. The Bank of England sounded more dovish, and the European Central Bank sounded complacent about the inflation undershoot. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates earlier this week. Investors should remain overweight UK Gilts, position for more ECB easing by going long the September 2026 3-month Euribor futures, and fade further rate hikes priced in Australia.
South Africa’s commodity boost is fading, but its cyclical headwinds remain. As growth weakens and capital inflows dry up, the rand looks increasingly vulnerable to a reversal.