Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

How should I hedge my portfolio for the next bear market? This is a question many of our clients face, and one that investors too often answer on the basis of intuition or narrative. The All-Defense Chartpack aims to provide a solid starting point for that analysis, grounded in empirical data. It examines the historical performance of a wide range of defensive assets across several decades of large drawdowns, and adds further considerations on likely future performance and the tradeoffs each safe haven offers.

The equity bull market is getting long in the tooth. Bonds should perform well once economic growth begins to slow. The dollar will strengthen over the coming months before resuming its downtrend. While crude has likely found a near-term floor, we favor metals over energy in the long run.

Special Report

We discuss what recommendations to expect from the Fed’s balance sheet task force. We conclude that any future balance sheet consolidation will be smaller than many anticipate.

Bank Credit Analyst

Section I maps how the broad distribution of wealth gains is supporting US consumption. Section II examines how countries can meet swelling electricity demand. The winners will find paths to build the infrastructure needed to power the high-tech future.

Special Report

China holds a structural advantage in this "Age of Electricity" by operating the world's largest electricity system. However, this advantage has inherent limits, and the US remains competitive despite its challenges.

The dollar has had a strong run but its key supports from Fed repricing, positioning, and terms of trade are starting to fade. We close our tactical long USD positions and turn to short USD/JPY, where intervention risk makes yen shorts look increasingly dangerous.

Korea’s recent equity market tantrum is a warning signal for global risk assets. We are booking profits on the long Asian semiconductor stocks / short US hyperscalers trade and downgrading Korea from overweight to neutral in an EM equity portfolio.

Special Report

AI dominates markets, but concentration is risk. Real Estate is the diversifier. It outperformed during the Dot-Com bust and will do so again if the AI trade unwinds. Even Office, the sector arguably most exposed to AI disruption, will prove more resilient than bears expect.

Stay overweight gilts despite renewed political turmoil in the UK.

In this screener report, we explore opportunities in Japanese Non-TMT equities, El Niño hedges, and US consumer-facing equities.