Latest from BCA Research
The 10-year Treasury term premium is now competitive with Baa- and Ba-rated credit spreads. Even without term premium compression, duration carry trades could outperform credit carry trades in a low rate vol environment.
Our clients know that we have been very generous when it comes to analyzing President Trump’s policy choices and negotiating style. In our view, ascribing preferences to the man is a poor analytical framework. President Trump goes into every situation trying to maximize his gains, only adjusting his expectations and preferences as constraints become clear. As such, focus on constraints, not stated preferences. Where does Greenland fit in this paradigm?
Europe is in a geopolitical sweet spot. Exaggerated fears of Russian military aggression and abandonment by the United States, as well as increased competition from China, create a geopolitical imperative to stimulate, reflate, and reform. Taken together with fading cyclical headwinds, it suggests that European risk assets can continue to outperform US ones on a cyclical investment time horizon. Remain long European stocks, in particular industrials, and EUR/USD.
The precious metal bonanza has not resolved the South African economy’s plight. Nor did it improve its public debt sustainability issues. Investors should brace for a reversal in South African stocks, bonds, and the currency.
After silver's parabolic surge, we assess the rally's vulnerability by examining its weakest links. We conclude that silver is ripe for a pullback.
In our 2026 inflation outlook, we explain why 2026 will bring more disinflation, upside risks remain contained, and how to position in ILBs across major markets.
Investors should bet against the US seizing Greenland by force and collapsing NATO. But stay tactically defensive anyway.
On Monday – January 19 – BCA Research will hold its View Meeting (open to all clients to view online or as a recording!). This is the gathering of all Chief Strategists to talk about the economy, views, and markets. A veritable Macro Entmoot! Every weekend before a View Meeting, I try to step back and think big picture. In particular, I like to think what will be the defining geomacro issue of the year. And how will it impact the markets.