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Currencies

We see challenges ahead for Global Buyout across geographies as valuations need further resetting. While we are concerned with capital controls and flight risk in Asia-Pacific Venture Capital, the upside potential from AI may be worth a look. The current entry point for Private Credit is opportune across North America and Europe with the distressed pipeline building. Real Estate does not look appealing with the macro and relative opportunity set driving our underweight. Hedge Funds have a favorable backdrop in the near-term, although prospects differ across Directional, Diversifier, and Crisis Risk Offset strategies.

The Japanese yen slid by 2.1% vis-à-vis the US dollar last week, reversing the prior week’s rally. This latest bout of weakness comes on the back of speculation that the Bank of Japan will keep policy unchanged at its Friday meeting. On the one hand, both…
The Chinese yuan was among the best performing currencies on Thursday after authorities implemented measures to support the yuan. Specifically, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set its daily fixing at a stronger-than-anticipated rate and allowed more…
Investors have become increasingly more optimistic about the economic outlook. BoA’s Global Fund Manager Survey shows the share of investors surveyed expecting the global economy to experience a soft landing over the next 12 months rose to 68% in July. That…

In this report, we evaluate the breakdown in the dollar and next moves in the DXY, based on fundamentals, historical precedents, and technical patterns over the last few years.

In this report, we evaluate the breakdown in the dollar and next moves in the DXY, based on fundamentals, historical precedents, and technical patterns over the last few years.

The South African rand has been a key winner amid the recent improvement in risk sentiment. Notably, the ZAR's 10.9% appreciation versus the US dollar since May 25 has made it the best performing major currency over this period. To the extent that the rand…
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service concludes that the failure of EM stocks, Asian currencies and commodities to stage a broad-based outperformance is consistent with their macro thesis that global trade/manufacturing – the main driver of EM –…

In this report, we dissect which markets have broken out and which ones have not, and reflect what this entails for our global macro view. Also, we analyze how the S&P 500 has been taking its cues from a change in the inflation trend. Yet, inflation dynamics are complex, and a falling inflation rate does not mean that the inflation menace has been eliminated.

After US inflation slowed down markedly, EUR/USD broke out to 1.12, which constitutes a 16-month high. The euro is benefiting from the market expectation that the Fed will soon be done with its hikes while the ECB’s monetary tightening campaign remains more…