Developed Countries
US retail sales delivered a positive signal about consumer demand in January. The 3.0% m/m increase – the largest since March 2021 – easily beat expectations of 2.0% m/m and marked a significant improvement from December’s 1.1% m/m decline. The retail sales…
US manufacturing sector indicators corroborate the positive signal about the US economy from the January retail sales report (see The Numbers). Although industrial output was flat in January, a 9.9% m/m drop in utilities – reflecting an unseasonably warm…
After declining by 11% between late-September and February 1, the DXY index has since gained 2%. Notably, this improvement in the dollar’s performance coincides with positive US economic data surprises over the past two weeks. In particular, nonfarm payroll…
Stocks have always underperformed bonds ahead of recessions, even during the inflationary 1970s. So, the current absence of underperformance of stocks versus bonds indicates that the markets are not yet priced for a recession. The main driver of stock versus…
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, European investment grade corporates are the most attractive among corporate bond markets in the US and Europe. Last year’s rise in US and European corporate bond yields to more “attractive”…
Core CPI rose sequentially in January compared to December, but we don’t see this as the beginning of a new trend. Disinflation is very much still in the cards for the US economy between now and the end of the year.
The backdrop for corporate bonds is turning more risky after the spread tightening seen over the past few months in the US and Europe. A tour of our favorite corporate spread valuation metrics on both sides of the Atlantic suggests a worsening cyclical risk/reward tradeoff for both investment grade and high-yield bonds, especially in the US.
As the Q4-22 earnings season draws to a close with 344 of the S&P 500 companies reporting as of February 10th, we can take stock of the results. According to Refinitiv/I/B/E/S: Earnings Season By Numbers Earnings growth: Year-over-year blended growth rate for…
According to BCA Research’s US bond Strategy service at its current pace, the Fed’s QT program will continue for at least the next 12 months, and possibly longer. Fed Governor Christopher Waller outlined the Fed’s current thinking about its balance sheet…
US headline CPI inflation eased slightly from 6.5% y/y to 6.4% y/y in January – above consensus estimates of a greater decline to 6.2% y/y. Similarly, core inflation’s moderation from 5.7% y/y to 5.6% y/y was a slight disappointment to expectations it would…