Economy
Comments on recent Fedspeak, bond market moves and this morning’s CPI report.
Domestic auto sales in China will likely have anemic growth over the next three years. Yet, Chinese automakers are set to gain a larger share of the global market. Go long Chinese automakers / short global ones.
The US PPI report came in hotter-than-anticipated in September. Although the headline index decelerated from 0.7% m/m to 0.5% m/m, it remains above expectations of a more pronounced moderation to 0.3% m/m. In particular, a 3.3% m/m increase in energy prices…
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting confirmed that the Fed intends to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Although inflation has been moderating, participants continue to view it as unacceptably high and emphasized that they remain “highly…
Taiwanese exports unexpectedly grew for the first time in just over a year in September – sending a positive signal about the global manufacturing cycle. The 3.4% y/y increase surprised anticipations of a moderation in the rate of decline from -7.3% y/y to…
The Q3 earnings season will shift into high gear this Friday as banks report their financial results for the quarter. Among the trends that we’ll be watching for is insight on the outlook for profit margins. As our US Investment strategists recently…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European automobile and components stocks will suffer over the coming years. The European automobile and components equity sector is cheap, trading at a modest 5.4 times forward earnings or a…
The sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that implies a probable and playable rebound. More strategically, long-duration bonds yielding close to 5 percent are an excellent structural investment assuming central banks choose to slay inflation and the cost is a near-term recession. We discuss how to time and how to play the potential rebound.
As we highlighted in a recent Insight, the stronger-than-anticipated improvement in German factory orders should be viewed with some degree of caution. Germany is the European economy most exposed to the global manufacturing sector. Several leading indicators…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, volatility will remain the key dynamic in oil markets in the aftermath of the surprise Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7. Everything depends on whether Israeli and US intelligence conclude…