We give our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and (lack of) market reaction. We also close our short position in January 2025 fed funds futures....
Our Q3 portfolio was defensive, which we believe will be the appropriate stance in the next six-to-twelve months. Data coming out of the US has remained robust which could cause US bond yields to temporarily overshoot. An overshoot in US bond yields will be an opportunity to dial up the portfolio’s ...
The good news is that we should not fear an imminent US recession. In the absence of a recession though, the Fed cannot cut rates as aggressively as is priced if it wants to keep inflation and inflation expectations anchored at 2 percent. This means that for stock markets the real risk is not a prof...
One of the best things about working at the world’s largest – and oldest! – market research firm is that the “vault” contains research on almost any conceivable topic. As such, I pen this short missive to flag to the GeoMacro clients three reports on the risk of tech regulation – relevant in the con...
Following last week's strong jobs report, I'm hearing more people argue that a 4% Treasury yield is not that restrictive after all. To see why this view is wrong, suppose that the 10-year Treasury yield stays at 4% and mortgage rates remain roughly where they are....
The month of October ahead of a US general election tends to be a volatile month with negative outcome for equities. As such, it is prudent to remain on the sidelines until after the election....
The US election underscores three long-term trends of Generational Change, Peak Polarization, and Limited Big Government. Investors should expect more volatility around the election and should assess the results before adding more risk. While we predicted the October surprise from the Middle East, m...
The BCA Score L/S pure factor was marginally up on the month, returning 0.80%. More positively, the factor spectrum was led by Technical (6.1%) and Quality (2.5%). The USHQ portfolio marginally underperformed its benchmark in September. Specifically, the SPY benchmark returned 3.3% and the USHQ port...
Recent data releases and revisions indicate that the US economy is stronger than initially reported, reducing the odds of a recession. While we harbor concerns about the reliability of the data, for now, it appears that aggressive monetary easing is taking place against the backdrop of a strong econ...
