CoreMacro
BCA’s flagship global macro and investment strategy platform, helping investors anticipate regime shifts, connect signals across regions and asset classes, and navigate the world’s most difficult macro questions.
The rebound in China's producer prices and profits this year owes more to external demand than to meaningful progress under Beijing's anti-involution campaign.
The UK economy is becoming increasingly fragile, but the investment outlook is improving. Slower growth and a more dovish BoE will support gilts, while UK equities will likely benefit from a favorable sector mix and a weaker pound.
We are increasingly being asked if higher for longer interest rates could help spur consumption by boosting interest income. This report examines household income and balance sheet data to see if they might.
MacroQuant recommends underweighting equities and adopting a benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios. The model is very positive on the US dollar, bearish on gold, neutral on copper, and bullish on oil.
The equity bull market is getting long in the tooth. Bonds should perform well once economic growth begins to slow. The dollar will strengthen over the coming months before resuming its downtrend. While crude has likely found a near-term floor, we favor metals over energy in the long run.
Korea’s recent equity market tantrum is a warning signal for global risk assets. We are booking profits on the long Asian semiconductor stocks / short US hyperscalers trade and downgrading Korea from overweight to neutral in an EM equity portfolio.
The most vulnerable households have whittled down their real debt balances while achieving significant real wealth gains. The combination has made consumption more resilient to income hiccups than in past cycles.