Latest from BCA Research

In lieu of all the geopolitical and economic news in media, this report looks at where next the dollar is likely to trend in the next one-to-three months. Our view is down, though on a cyclical horizon (six-to-twelve months), we would not be short the dollar, for now.

President Trump is negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine. This will be a marginal headwind to some commodities which benefitted from the conflict like natural gas and wheat, and will be a marginal tailwind for European assets, specifically EM Europe. Use Trump’s tariff shock as an opportunity to buy European assets.

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays on the run-up in gold prices, a hotter-than-expected US inflation print, and calling the top in Bitcoin.

Special Report

Thanks to their attractive valuations, European equities are piquing the interest of global investors. Is there more to the appeal of European stocks or do they remain a mere value trap?

Special Report

Thanks to their attractive valuations, European equities are piquing the interest of global investors. Is there more to the appeal of European stocks or do they remain a mere value trap?

If the 130-day complexity of the Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond collapsed to 1.30, it would signal the risk of a -20 percent market slump. This indicator, at 1.37, is not yet at critical, but we recommend that you keep a close eye on it on our website. Plus: an update on our recent trades.

The budget process and debt ceiling will cause stock and bond market volatility. US trade policies will provoke foreign pushback at a time of stretched valuations. Hence US politics and geopolitics will be bullish for US energy, but bearish for the internationally exposed US tech sector.

Some thoughts on this morning’s CPI report and its implications for the Fed and Treasury yields.

Special Report

Questions about fiscal risks and their impact on bond markets have become more frequent in client conversations. This Special Report provides a framework to assess a country’s fiscal sustainability and how it affects its bond market outlook. On an individual country basis, Spain has shown a remarkable turnaround in its fiscal sustainability outlook while the fiscal outlook for France continues to deteriorate.