Latest from BCA Research

The Republican Party’s odds of winning the 2024 election will benefit, if anything, from state courts’ attempts to exclude President Trump from primary or general election ballots. Higher odds of a change of ruling party will increase stock and bond market volatility.

Vietnamese stocks may not see an immediate rally as global manufacturing and exports remain weak. But investors with longer-term horizons should stay overweight this market.

In this insight we review the Key Views for 2024 from our strategists and give recommendations for implementing them in Equity Analyzer.

Oil prices will rise tactically due to supply risks. Recent developments indicate escalation of the conflict with Iran in the Middle East and confirm our expectation of energy supply disruptions and oil price spikes in the short run.

Our last publication of 2023 is an illustrated guide to our view that the economy will enter a recession around midyear. We expect equities will underperform Treasuries and cash over much of 2024, but we are waiting to turn tactically defensive until more investors are drawn into the soft-landing camp, capping the equity rally.

Special Report

Our recommendations for blogs and X’s (on the economy, financial markets, asset allocation, bonds, quants, energy, real estate, geopolitics, and specific countries and regions) to try over the holidays.

Special Report

Explore the eight main themes that will drive the returns of European assets in 2024.

Special Report

In this week’s report, we present our dollar view for 2024 and beyond, with a few trade ideas.

Special Report

The major question facing EM investors in 2024 is whether or not EM will cross the Rubicon. The path to a soft landing in the US remains elusive. The recent improvement in global manufacturing/trade will likely prove to be a mid-cycle bounce rather than the beginning of a cyclical recovery.

Special Report

Political economy dominates fundamentals going into 2024, as states prepare for war and de-risk supply chains. Asynchronous global growth will elevate commodity-price volatility. We expect oil to trade above $100/bbl in 2024 and continue to favor equity exposure to oil-and-gas producers. Given weak capex, we also favor metals miners and refiners. We remain long the Gold, the XME and COMT ETFs We were stopped out of our XOP ETF with a 12.5% gain; we will re-establish it at tonight’s close.