Economy
BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the BJP's loss of majority in India’s parliament could be a blessing in disguise for India. The new BJP-led coalition with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will largely continue the structural…
Our Global Investment Strategy team often highlights the job openings-to-unemployed ratio as a gauge of the labor market’s slack. This indicator climbed to over 2 job openings per unemployed person in 2022, as labor shortages plagued the US economy due to…
The end of China’s exponential credit growth will impede structural rallies in Chinese stocks and commodities, but US superstar stocks’ bubble-like valuations will impede them too. Leaving European stocks as the likely structural outperformer. Plus: copper is correcting, NVDA is consolidating.
According to the results of the latest German IFO survey, overall sentiment deteriorated slightly in June. The IFO Business Climate index declined from 89.3 in May to 88.6 in June, disappointing expectations of a modest amelioration to 89.6. The IFO current…
Canada’s headline inflation rate for May surprised to the upside on Tuesday. The 0.6% month-on-month print and 2.9% year-on-year increase came in above expectations of 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y, respectively. Both measures increased from April. Core inflation…
Emerging market debt is typically thought of as a cyclical asset. When risk assets sell off and the dollar rises, this asset class has historically suffered. However, there are some signs that the risk-on nature of EM debt has begun to change. In a recent…
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service remains tactically neutral with a defensive cyclical bias. The team is resisting the impulse to turn prematurely defensive ahead of the coming recession. Our colleagues believe that fleeing for the hills at the…
Today’s report recaps last week’s webcast and elaborates on its themes, delving into the empirical evidence underpinning our conviction that asset allocators should underweight equities sparingly and fleetingly. We remain tactically neutral and cyclically bearish.
Is the BoE making a mistake moving toward rate cuts before the end of the summer? What would such a move mean for UK asset prices?
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (LEI) disappointed in May, contracting 0.5% m/m from a 0.6% decline in April. However, the Coincident Economic Index (CEI) grew 0.4% m/m in May. Year-on-year contractions in the LEI have reliably predicted…