Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in the House of Representatives. Foreign policy will become more unila...
The most likely outcomes for the US elections are a “Red Sweep” and a “Blue Gridlock.” The following is a brief discussion of likely policies associated with each election outcome. We also present a post-election US Equities Cheat Sheet, in which we summarize winning trades for each scenario over th...
Over the next few months, Japan’s new government will ease fiscal policy, which will improve domestic demand on the margin. Monetary policy may tighten further in the short run but not too much over the long run. The geopolitical setting drives Japan into accommodative economic policy....
The Election Day is finally upon us. No, there is no final “silver bullet” forecast contained in this email. Just our long-term forecast of how the election will, no matter who wins, impact the markets....
Turkey has a path toward sustained disinflation. But that will require tight macro policies for an extended period. The question is, will the authorities tolerate the consequent growth slowdown, even a recession, and surging unemployment, as the necessary cost to break the back of inflation?...
This week, we are sending you a sector chart pack. In the front section of this publication, we briefly review October's performance and then switch our attention to the earnings season and outlook for the Magnificent Seven....
As the odds of a Trump victory rise, European assets underperform US ones. What would be the immediate impact of a Trump victory on European stocks?...
Can Powell achieve a soft landing? There are some indications he is doing it. We examine why our negative stance was wrong and analyze the four growth engines that kept recession at bay. Half of these forces remain while the other half have run out of juice. While this might be enough to keep the ec...
