With the Fed looming larger on investors’ radar screens, we revisit our fed funds rate cycle analysis. We expect that the current easing-while-already-easy phase will be less rewarding than normal for the S&P 500 because multiples have already expanded to very elevated levels....
On Monday – January 19 – BCA Research will hold its View Meeting (open to all clients to view online or as a recording!). This is the gathering of all Chief Strategists to talk about the economy, views, and markets. A veritable Macro Entmoot! Every weekend before a View Meeting, I try to step back a...
The AI trade has broadened beyond Public Markets, pulling Private Credit deeper into the ecosystem. Investors are right to understand their overlapping exposures between Public Equities, Venture Capital, Data Centers, and now Private Credit. However, risks from rising Venture Capital Debt and Asset-...
Go long KRW versus USD. Within an EM equity portfolio, overweight Korean tech and stay neutral on Korean non-tech. However, we are not bullish on the Korean bourse's absolute performance....
Over the past few months, we have been deploying new market-timing tools aimed at improving the accuracy of our calls. Today’s report highlights our ultra high-frequency Daily Oscillators, which provide daily signals on the near-term direction of the S&P 500 and long-term Treasuries....
With the US unemployment rate and interest rate close to the ‘neutral’ u-star and r-star respectively, further Fed rate cuts risk pushing up inflation and long-term inflation expectations. This is bad for bonds but good for stocks. Plus, two new trades are: short TOPIX versus DAX; and short CAT vers...
