France’s political turmoil is far from over, and fiscal fears are growing. This is not a bond-friendly environment. In contrast, it is a good time to upgrade French equities. As the 2027 presidential race is about to begin in earnest, we make an early call on its outcome....
President Trump has activated the California national guard as protests envelop the city of Los Angeles for the third day in the row. This is the first time that the national guard has been activated by the federal government in Los Angeles since the 1992 riots. Our clients from Australia to Greece ...
Several astute clients have asked us to comment on the recent extraordinary attack by Ukraine against Russia. The attack, which did not harm any Russian military personnel, occurred on June 1 and struck airfields across the vastness of Russia, as far as the Far East. According to Ukrainian officials...
The US economy has held up better so far this year than we had expected. For the time being, investors should remain modestly underweight equities. A more aggressive underweight would be justified only once the “whites of the recession’s eyes” are visible....
For now, measures of labor market utilization (like the unemployment rate) are only gradually weakening. But we know from history that these trends have a habit of quickly accelerating in advance of recession....
This week our three screeners explore equity trades in gold mining stocks, European banks, and US stocks ex-Tech should a recession not be imminent....
Unlike in past episodes, US dollar weakness will be deflationary, not reflationary, for the rest of the world. In this context, EM local currency bonds offer a superior risk-reward profile. Stay long domestic bonds in select EM countries....
The ECB is changing its tone, but don’t call it a pivot. Slower cuts, sticky disinflation, and a soft growth patch shift the opportunity set. We break down the tactical bond trades and why EUR/USD dips are still for buying....
India's IT service exports have been booming and will continue to do so despite wider AI usage. Indian IT stocks, however, will not benefit from it as the expanding Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India compete with the nation’s IT companies, driving the latter's profitability down....
I am a structural disbeliever in the US superstar stocks because these winners of the previous technology, Web 2.0, are unlikely all to be the winners of the latest technology, AI. But I would suspend my disbelief if the Magnificent-7 index reaches a new high and the bursting AI-bubble configuration...
