Essentials

Bank Credit Analyst

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.

Bank Credit Analyst

Section II of this month’s Bank Credit Analyst report is a guest piece written by Martin Barnes, which we are making available to all clients. Martin, who retired from BCA Research as Chief Economist in 2021 after a long and illustrious career, expresses his personal views about the long-run outlook for inflation. He argues that the multi-decade disinflationary era is over, which will bring significant challenges for both policymakers and investors.

Bank Credit Analyst

Section II of this month’s Bank Credit Analyst report is a guest piece written by Martin Barnes, which we are making available to all clients. Martin, who retired from BCA Research as Chief Economist in 2021 after a long and illustrious career, expresses his personal views about the long-run outlook for inflation. He argues that the multi-decade disinflationary era is over, which will bring significant challenges for both policymakers and investors.

Bank Credit Analyst

Volatility will remain the key dynamic in oil markets in the aftermath of the surprise Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7. The risk of a major oil supply shock has gone up, but meanwhile supply constraints will remain at variance with global growth problems stemming from restrictive monetary policy over the next 12 months. Favor bonds over stocks, large caps over small caps, defense and energy stocks over other cyclicals, and US equities relative to global equities.

Bank Credit Analyst

Bank Credit Analyst

Bank Credit Analyst

Bank Credit Analyst

Bank Credit Analyst

The Russian mutiny reveals the underlying trend of domestic instability. Russian instability is negative for global stability. The endgame of the war in Ukraine is exacerbating the problem, likely pushing up the equity risk premium.

Bank Credit Analyst

We are overweight Private Credit. Improvements in yield, negotiating leverage, and structuring upside are major tailwinds over the coming years. The business cycle provides an attractive backdrop for all Private Credit sub-asset classes. In this Special Report we examine Private Credit as a whole, but with more emphasis on the income-focused sub-categories of Senior and Mezzanine Debt.