GeoMacro

On Monday – January 19 – BCA Research will hold its View Meeting (open to all clients to view online or as a recording!). This is the gathering of all Chief Strategists to talk about the economy, views, and markets. A veritable Macro Entmoot! Every weekend before a View Meeting, I try to step back and think big picture. In particular, I like to think what will be the defining geomacro issue of the year. And how will it impact the markets.

Japan's new government will continue, but politics and foreign policy have become more competitive.

Special Report

Spain's equity and bond outperformance reflects genuine fundamental repair: Lower bad loans, stronger profitability, and sustained earnings upgrades. Valuations remain undemanding despite the rally. Productivity is the key structural risk, but near-term fundamentals continue to surprise to the upside.

The year 2026 has started off well, with not even the threat to central bank independence denting the market's enthusiasm. Perhaps our tactical caution is misplaced.

Congress will ultimately limit Trump from acting on his worst impulses, but his efforts to bypass those limits will cause market volatility.

The risk to Iran's regime survival raises the probability of a massive global oil supply shock back to around 40%, where we put it last year.

The US removal of Venezuela's Maduro does not presage an invasion of Greenland. But it does justify a lingering risk of conflict with Iran.

In trying to dispel client concerns that the US would get involved in another “forever war” akin to Iraq, we posited in a recent missive that President Trump’s designs on Venezuela were similar to the 1983 invasion of Grenada. A way to flex American muscle while, at the same time, reducing US global commitments.