Latest from BCA Research
MacroQuant is bearish on equities, overweight bonds, and overweight cash. Within equities, the model favors Europe over the US and is neutral on EM.
The OPEC 2.0 supply cuts announced over the weekend will be fundamentally bullish international crude oil prices. According to our model, brent will cross the USD 100/bbl mark by August this year. We believe the cohort is pre-emptively cutting oil supply in response to threats to their economic interest, including risks arising from the higher possibility of recession and rising market volatility following the banking crisis.
We think the banking turmoil set off by Silicon Valley Bank’s failure will prove to be less than it’s been cracked up to be and that it will not derail the near-term equity we expect.
Is the European banking system hiding nasty surprises? How will the recent stress affect European growth and the ECB’s policy outlook?
High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.
This week we are sending you a Style Chart Pack, which now includes a standalone macro section, as well as macro, fundamentals, valuations, technicals, and uses of cash charts for the S&P 500, Defensives vs. Cyclicals, Growth vs. Value, and Small vs. Large. In the front section of this publication, we will review recent equity performance, and attempt to answer real estate sector-related questions that are foremost in investors’ minds.
Colombian assets are inexpensive, but they are cheap for a reason. The economy is entering a growth recession while inflation will remain sticky and above target. Further, President Gustavo Petro’s policies will lead to lower investment, rising political volatility, and public debt deterioration. Continue underweighting Colombia across all asset classes.
This US Bond Strategy Insight takes an in-depth look at core non-housing services inflation.
Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising geopolitical risk.