Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

The dollar enters 2026 on the edge of a structural decline. Our FX Key Views report maps the valuation, flow, and policy pressures that could finally trigger a sustained downtrend – and where the trade opportunities lie.

Special Report

Every year, the Global Asset Allocation team compiles a list of our favorite books, essays, and articles from our strategists ahead of the holiday season. This year, we focus on writings by practitioners in the world of finance, business, and beyond. While diverse in their backgrounds, one theme stands out: Adaptation.

As in the US, Europe now offers compelling opportunities, albeit in different sectors and countries. Multifamily remains resilient amid structurally tight supply, while Industrial continues to cool. The most attractive opportunities are emerging in Office and Retail, where fundamentals are beginning to turn.

Rumors are swirling in Washington, D.C. that the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) will rule on President Trump’s tariff policies either this week (according to Barron’s) or in early January (according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent). A ruling against the tariffs would be a major strike against President Trump and, at the very least, upend markets in the short term.

Lots of data out today, most of which point to a global economy that is cooling but not (yet) freezing.

Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026

Following this weekend's election, we reiterate an overweight stance across Chilean risk assets relative to EM benchmarks and advise buying local currency government bonds (currency unhedged).

Special Report

The US is ripe for a third major political party, but the two-party system will probably prevail in the 2028 election. The macro context will determine whether the US elects a left-wing populist.

Special Report

Weak, narrowly concentrated job growth in fields that pay poorly bodes ill for the economy, but we enter 2026 recommending benchmark allocations because we are wary of the potential for an AI-driven meltup. Investors should bide their time before turning defensive.

2026 will see geopolitical risk move sideways globally as the US pursues a ceasefire in the proxy war with Russia and a tariff truce with China ahead of midterm elections that will produce gridlock.