Latest from BCA Research

This insight gives life to four high-conviction views on European small caps, aero¬space & defense, banks, and telecoms by harnessing the power of BCA’s Equity Analyzer (EA).

EUR/JPY has reached stretched levels, prompting new short trade recommendations across BCA Strategies. The calls are underpinned by compelling valuation, macro, and technical signals.

Special Report

Our latest report analyzes home bias in bonds and equities across 15 countries. The verdict? Hedged international bonds outperform domestic peers, especially during high inflation. In equities, even top markets like the US have had multi-year periods of underperformance. Allocators should leave patriotism aside when running their portfolios.

Special Report

Global investors should keep an open mind regarding global trade and whether "Cold War II" is taking shape. Today's international context is different from that of the original Cold War, but economic integration has declined and could well continue to decline if the great powers do not manage their security competition better in coming years.

The fact that the US economy has been slower to deteriorate than in past cycles is entirely consistent with our kinked Phillips curve framework. We will be looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when to turn fully defensive.

Jay Powell won’t be removed as Fed Chair before the expiry of his term next May, but we will learn the identity of his replacement this year, setting up a potentially awkward “shadow Fed Chair” situation.

US equity investors should heed warning signals from US corporate bond yields. There are early red flags for EM share prices. Global trade will shrink in H2 2025. China’s economic tailwinds from H1 2025 – fiscal and export frontloading – are coming to an end.

Euro area and Chinese interest rates must fall much further to prevent monetary policy from becoming ultra-restrictive. But Trump’s attempts to force unwarranted rate cuts from the Fed risks a vicious backlash from the bond vigilantes.

Beijing’s supply-side push faces steeper hurdles than in 2016. With limited demand support and tighter constraints on cutting capacity, today’s reforms are unlikely to pack the same punch.

Special Report

Despite macro headwinds, the OBBBA clearly favors Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary equity sectors. A carefully constructed, factor-aware basket in these sectors is well positioned to outperform in a fiscal-driven, uncertain environment.