Latest from BCA Research
Investors will be disappointed if they buy into the China rally and then Russia escalates the war in Ukraine.
Inflation expectations in the US remain reasonably well anchored and there are few signs of a brewing wage-price spiral. Thus, the near-term risks to growth outweigh the risks of higher inflation. Looking beyond the next year or two, however, we are worried about stagflation.
The NFL and NBA grab the headlines, but growth beats size. This report reveals the story behind Major League Soccer (MLS) growth. Valuations have jumped, yet plenty of upside remains—making the MLS relatively attractive compared to other US major leagues.
The bond vigilantes are circling over several targets right now: France, the UK, and Japan. But France is the most vulnerable because of a toxic combination: a total debt ratio well above 300 percent plus the worst primary deficit in the G7 plus political gridlock, which will get even worse if Prime Minister Francois Bayrou loses the September 8th vote of confidence in his minority government. We explain why the ECB cannot save France, and the investment implications. Plus, we unveil our brand-new complexity ‘heat map’ for global asset allocation which leads to a new tactical trade to underweight world communication services (WTEL).
I am pleased to announce the launch of PowerTrades, an exclusive new service for Global Investment Strategy subscribers that delivers our top trading insights directly to your inbox.
Renewables’ role in power-hungry data centers is overstated. Natural gas will fill clean electricity’s data center supply shortfall, particularly in the US and Europe.
In the Alpha report, we maintain our bullishness on the equity market. We are optimistic that the cash-fueled cycle will evolve into a leverage-driven one, with the AI capex cycle acting as the "bridge" between the two. Our view is easily falsifiable. If the 10-year yield starts moving against us, we will pull the plug on the cycle. One reason to fret is that tariff revenue has now become critical to the equity bull market. Without it, bonds could riot.
