FICC
| Bonds
Bond market analysis on where to position across government bonds, credit, and inflation-linked debt.
In our 2026 inflation outlook, we explain why 2026 will bring more disinflation, upside risks remain contained, and how to position in ILBs across major markets.
Mortgage spread tightening has run its course. Any further drop in mortgage rates will necessitate lower Treasury yields.
This morning’s CPI report signals that the worst of the tariff impact on inflation may already be in the rearview mirror.
Our Q1 outlook maps global growth, curve dynamics, and policy surprises, which we then translate to our recommended global fixed income portfolio allocations and trades.
Measures of labor market utilization improved in December, ruling out a January cut and significantly reducing the odds of a March cut.
From steepening to flattening. As the BoJ continues to tighten in 2026, we show why curve flatteners are finally the right trade.
Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026
The Fed is on hold for now, but its 2026 economic projections are far too optimistic. The Fed will ease more next year than it currently anticipates.