FICC

The CNY is undervalued and highly competitive. This gives China room to let the currency appreciate while remaining an export-driven powerhouse, gradually shifting from export intensity toward stronger domestic consumption. This achieves two objectives. First, it narrows the capital account deficit and strengthens the CNY’s role as a global anchor. Second, it enhances Beijing’s geopolitical autonomy by reducing reliance on foreign final demand.

Special Report

This Special Report assesses evidence of RMB’s involvement in global carry trades, examines its structural characteristics, and identifies key indicators of a potential unwind.

South Africa’s commodity boost is fading, but its cyclical headwinds remain. As growth weakens and capital inflows dry up, the rand looks increasingly vulnerable to a reversal.

Special Report

Global liquidity has been the decisive macro variable in 2025, and should stay broadly supportive through most of 2026. We therefore stay neutral equities versus bonds (valuations are stretched), keep a positive bias toward metals (especially gold), and prefer European and Japanese equities over US ones. The key risk is a late-2026 volatility regime shift as overheating fears force a repricing in rates.

FX markets have dominated headlines over the past week, with a meltdown in the dollar and a surge in the yen. This week’s note unpacks the forces behind these moves and assesses whether recent price action marks a temporary dislocation or the start of a more durable FX shift.

With FX volatility near cycle lows, this Insight examines where positioning has become most stretched across G10, EM FX, and precious metals – and what that implies for near-term moves and reversal risks.

Special Report

The dollar enters 2026 on the edge of a structural decline. Our FX Key Views report maps the valuation, flow, and policy pressures that could finally trigger a sustained downtrend – and where the trade opportunities lie.

Special Report

Every year, the Global Asset Allocation team compiles a list of our favorite books, essays, and articles from our strategists ahead of the holiday season. This year, we focus on writings by practitioners in the world of finance, business, and beyond. While diverse in their backgrounds, one theme stands out: Adaptation.

The SNB remains on hold, but the bar for further easing is falling quickly – even as Switzerland secures a breakthrough trade deal with the US. With CHF now pressing against a policy ceiling, the franc looks increasingly attractive as a funding currency.

Bitcoin’s recent volatility masks a deeper story – the widest disconnect from traditional macro drivers since 2022. With sentiment now deeply negative and institutional demand still building, the conditions for a realignment with fundamentals are falling into place.