FICC
| Currencies
Near-term trades and longer-term views on every major developed and emerging market currency.
The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows.
We apply a systematic approach to investing based on economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises to the foreign exchange market. The signals from this framework are broadly consistent with the tactical views of our FX strategists, which anticipate a pause in the USD’s decline and a partial reversal of the recent euro strength.
Consensus sees one final ECB cut; we argue two are coming as deflationary forces are building in Europe. Dive in for the trade map: falling Bund yields, tighter peripheral spreads, and a euro primed for a 2026 rebound.
EUR/JPY has reached stretched levels, prompting new short trade recommendations across BCA Strategies. The calls are underpinned by compelling valuation, macro, and technical signals.
EUR/USD is in a multi-year bull market. A short-term pause is likely, but the longer-term trend remains higher toward 1.25, and eventually 1.40.
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
In this Insight, we highlight our strong conviction trades based on the central bank meetings held by the Bank of England, the Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank.