FICC

The pound will reach $1.60 if ‘America’s Brexit’ cancels out ‘Britain’s Brexit’. Meanwhile, the flight from the fiat dollar to non-fiat bitcoin will enable the preeminent cryptocurrency to reach $200,000+.

In this Insight, we look at the best trade idea from the recent rate cut by the Riksbank.

In this note, we reaffirm our underweight position in JGBs and long yen positions given the BoJ’s meeting overnight.

In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies.

The ECB is changing its tone, but don’t call it a pivot. Slower cuts, sticky disinflation, and a soft growth patch shift the opportunity set. We break down the tactical bond trades and why EUR/USD dips are still for buying.

The Bank of Canada may be on hold for now, but deflationary risks are rising fast. Find out why rate cuts may come sooner than markets expect.

Global currency markets have entered a new era. This implies that the framework for analyzing exchange rates must also change. We introduce a new framework for analyzing EM currencies and classify them into resilient and vulnerable categories. Finally, we are adding more EM domestic bonds to our portfolio and making many changes to our currency trades.

This Insight looks at the implications of the RBNZ’s rate cut on New Zealand assets.

The RBA just turned dovish, but the macro data do not justify many more cuts. We unpack why Australia’s strong labor market and sticky inflation limit the scope for further easing.

The easing bias remains, but not all central banks are equal. This Central Bank Monitor update reveals who is ready to cut more and who is still pretending not to.