Latest from BCA Research
The Iran war is likely to re-escalate later this year even if shipping somehow resumes in the very near term — and yet an early reopening is looking less likely.
Global trade has held up despite US non-AI import volumes contracting by 25% over the past 12 months. The strength in global trade has concentrated in two areas: (1) imports of AI-related hardware and (2) developing countries’ imports, especially from China. Will these continue?
FOMC participants are coalescing around the idea that the funds rate will stay on hold for some time, an outcome that is now well priced in the bond market and that will not materially change under a new Fed Chair.
The BoJ held rates overnight, but the direction of travel hasn’t changed. We discuss how stronger wages, rising inflation, and a weak yen point to further tightening ahead.
Based on our previous work on margins, three aspects of margins may matter to investors: their level, their variability, and their likely trend. We add two margin-themed baskets: a stock-level High & Stable vs. Low & Volatile basket and an industry-level AI-Supported vs. AI-Insulated basket.
Based on our previous work on margins, three aspects of margins may matter to investors: their level, their variability, and their likely trend. We add two margin-themed baskets: a stock-level High & Stable vs. Low & Volatile basket and an industry-level AI-Supported vs. AI-Insulated basket.
The S&P 500 finished last week at an all-time high as optimism over earnings has pushed the Iran conflict out of the spotlight. Despite uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz, we do not think investors have enough evidence to justify underweighting equities and other risk assets.
The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the more likely the Eurozone will experience an economic recession, as higher energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and weaker global demand slowly grind the European economy to a halt. The relief rally is running out of time. Investors should add exposure to the best-performing sectors following past oil supply shocks: Energy, pharma, and utilities.
Chinese onshore equities are riding the global “scarcity trade,” powered by tight semi supply and surging alternative-energy demand. How should investors position in this environment?
The Iran war has damaged LNG production capacity and halted tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz. We assess the conflict's impact on LNG markets over cyclical and structural horizons.